
最后就是预测精度的检验啦

```
# 可以看到虽然趋于平稳的时间长度并不完全相同，但是平稳分布是一致的
# 我们下面利用10期数据检测预测精度
data_test = data.iloc[-10:]
_, data_test_states = Markov_forecast(data_test, conclude_P=False)
# 不需要计算转移概率矩阵
correct_count = {}
false_count = {}
for j in range(4):
    # 初值定义
    correct_count[price_datas[j]] = 0
    false_count[price_datas[j]] = 0
    for date in range(1, len(data_test_states)):
        states = np.array(data_test_states[price_datas[j]])
        state_list = np.array((1, 2, 3, 4))
        P_matrix = P_all[price_datas[j]]
        P_daily = np.linalg.matrix_power(P_matrix, date)
        # n步转移概率矩阵等于一步转移概率矩阵^n
        predicted_state = state_list[P_daily[:,j]==np.max(P_daily[:,j])][0]
        # 找到最大值的位置， 并且选取出对应的状态
        # 在某些状态下，该状态转向其他多个状态的概率是等价的，这里放宽要求，只要实际的状态
        # 在预测的可能状态其中之一即可
        if states[date] == predicted_state:
            # 如果成功预测，正确计数+1
            correct_count[price_datas[j]] += 1
        else:
            false_count[price_datas[j]] += 1
```

![](https://content.hackertalk.net/pub/4r6zEa-69pKKvl)

令人失望的是，这个预测方法的精确度并没有很完善（哪怕是状态预测），各位大佬如果有更好的解决方法可以提出一下，谢谢指正！

再次书接上回------

接下来时应用实践环节：

我们采用的数据部分如下所示，可以根据自己的需求选择自己想要预测的数

![](https://content.hackertalk.net/pub/r601wD-6JN01n1)

```
data = pd.read_csv('.csv')
data_tarin = data.iloc[:-10]# 预留出最后十天用于检验
price_datas = ['open', 'high', 'low', 'close']
P_all = {}
states_all = {}
P_all_round4 = {}
# 创建两个字典存储状态标签与转移概率矩阵
for i in range(4):
    P_all[price_datas[i]], states_all[price_datas[i]] = Markov_forecast(data_tarin[price_datas[i]])
    P_all_round4[price_datas[i]] = P_all[price_datas[i]].round(4)
P_all_round4
# 字典存储的转移概率矩阵
# 可以看到四组数据的一步转移概率矩阵并不完全相同
### 注意：转移概率矩阵在此时为了观感舒适而保留四位小数，但后续处理必须严格沿用计算得出的直接结果
### 否则会造成马氏链达成平稳的时间极其长，结果也不再准确
```

查看一步转移概率矩阵如下，可以用热力图来直观表达

![](https://content.hackertalk.net/pub/pnV4Mm-xA81W07)

!](https://content.hackertalk.net/pub/Dpz911-N9VkOdr)

还有后续，在我的下一个帖子上
然后是达成极限分布（平稳分布）所需天数，以及最终的平稳分布

```
# 因此我们得出四套数据的流动方向，状态是一致的,取其中一个研究即可
stabilizationperiod = {}
limiting_distribution = {}
for j in range(4):
    for i in range(10000):
        P_matrix = P_all[price_datas[j]]
        if np.allclose(np.linalg.matrix_power(P_matrix, i), np.linalg.matrix_power(P_matrix, i+1)) == True:
            # 保留一定的误差，完全相同则会导致则天数过多
            break
        # 用Python计算的时候，如果用scipy.linalg里面的solve，会有问题，因为这个方法要求传入的是一个方阵
        # 可是这里有五个方程，四个未知数，无法求出。
        # Return the least-squares solution to a linear matrix equation.
        # 用最小二乘法来求解，P_matrix是系数矩阵，b是结果
        P_matrix = P_matrix-np.eye(4)
        P_matrix = np.append(P_matrix,np.array([1,1,1,1])).reshape(-1,4)
        junyun = np.linalg.lstsq(P_matrix,np.array([0,0,0,0,1]))# 最终股票的分布
    limiting_distribution[price_datas[j]] = junyun[0]
    stabilizationperiod[price_datas[j]] = i
stabilizationperiod
# 达成平稳所需天数
# 如果采用截取四位小数的转移矩阵进行计算会导致达成平稳的天数超出10000天，误差也会变得很大
```

![](https://content.hackertalk.net/pub/VgOyZ0-1eGkMx2)

```
limiting_distribution
```

![](https://content.hackertalk.net/pub/EpeJZN-7r1d8pl)


书接上回----------


主要思想是首先进行状态划分，利用历史数据计算一步转移概率矩阵，利用公式
$$
p^{（n）} =p^n
$$

得到多步转移概率矩阵，对于每个状态，我们取它转向所有状态中“最大可能”的点作为它的预测点即

$$
\hat{state_{t+1}} = max(Prob(state_t\to\{states_1,states_2,....\}))
$$

```
def Markov_forecast(price_data:pd.DataFrame, conclude_P = True):
    # 由于时间跨度过长，为了避免通货膨胀对预测结果发生不利影响
    # 我们采用对数单日收益率进行预测
    log_rate = np.log(price_data.shift(1) / price_data).dropna()
    a = log_rate.describe()
    # 以四分位点作为分界点（四个状态）
    # 根据收益率不可能大于1的特性，做出如下处理
    states = log_rate# 创立副本，防止数据标记广播到原数据
    states[(log_rate>=a.iloc[6])]=4
    states[((log_rate>=a.iloc[5]) & (log_rate<a.iloc[6]))]=3
    states[((log_rate>=a.iloc[4]) & (log_rate<a.iloc[5]))]=2
    states[(log_rate<a.iloc[4])]=1
    # 状态标签完毕
    # 转移概率矩阵计算
    P_matrix = np.zeros((4, 4))
    array =np.array(states)
    if conclude_P == True:# 有需要才会计算
        for j in range(4):
            # 四行，每行单独计算
            for i in range(len(array)-1):
                if (array[i] == j+1 and array[i+1] == 1):
                    P_matrix[j, 0] += 1
                elif (array[i] == j+1 and array[i+1] == 2):
                    P_matrix[j, 1] += 1
                elif (array[i] == j+1 and array[i+1] == 3):
                    P_matrix[j, 2] += 1
                elif (array[i] == j+1 and array[i+1] == 4):
                    P_matrix[j, 3] += 1
            P_matrix[j: ] = P_matrix[j: ]/np.sum(P_matrix[j: ])
    return P_matrix, states
```

实践环节在下一个帖子

马尔科夫链预测国内某高校金融数学学子，课余时间对数据分析方向的编程很感兴趣。这是我学习随机过程中对学到的马尔可夫链写下的简单预测方案，~~第一次写博客，不足之处多多包涵

为啥写完了告诉我内容过长QAQ，大概要求是多少啊，没有找到删了好多还不让发

初来乍到，请多关照

同理，flutter reactNative 也是一样的

devcontainer.json

```yaml
// For format details, see https://aka.ms/devcontainer.json. For config options, see the
// README at: https://github.com/devcontainers/templates/tree/main/src/ubuntu
{
	"name": "Fei-Dev",
	// Or use a Dockerfile or Docker Compose file. More info: https://containers.dev/guide/dockerfile
	"dockerComposeFile": "../docker-dev-build/docker-compose.yml",
	"service": "devcontainer",
	"workspaceFolder": "/workspace",
	"features": {
		"ghcr.io/devcontainers/features/java:1": {},
		"ghcr.io/nordcominc/devcontainer-features/android-sdk:1": {}
	},
	"customizations": {
		"vscode": {
			"extensions": [
				"DavidAnson.vscode-markdownlint",
				"isudox.vscode-jetbrains-keybindings",
				"vscjava.vscode-gradle",
				"totalcross.android-xml-editor",
				"ms-azuretools.vscode-docker",
				"adelphes.android-dev-ext",
				"fwcd.kotlin"
			]
		}
	},
	"shutdownAction": "stopCompose",

	// Use 'forwardPorts' to make a list of ports inside the container available locally.
	// "forwardPorts": [],
	// Use 'postCreateCommand' to run commands after the container is created.
	"postCreateCommand": "adb start-server && sh gradlew build",
	// "postAttachCommand": "adb connect emulator:5555"
	// Configure tool-specific properties.
	// "customizations": {},
	// Uncomment to connect as root instead. More info: https://aka.ms/dev-containers-non-root.
	//fixme 尝试使用vscode 用户可以访问volume
	"remoteUser": "root"
}
```

docker-compose.yml

```
services:
  devcontainer:
    image: mcr.microsoft.com/devcontainers/base:ubuntu
    command: /bin/sh -c "while sleep 1000; do :; done"
    ports: 
      - "8080-8090"
    volumes:
      - ..:/workspace:cached
      - gradle-cache:/root/.gradle
      - top-cache:/root/.cache

  emulator:
    image: budtmo/docker-android:emulator_11.0
    ports:
      - "6080"
    environment:
      - EMULATOR_DEVICE=Samsung Galaxy S10
      - WEB_VNC=true
    devices:
      - /dev/kvm

volumes:
  gradle-cache:
  top-cache:
```



分享在docker 里面开发Android 项目

有谁会写毕设

标识符

483DAB9E-B587-4DAE-936C-201F5BC4BCBA

备注

Error Domain=kCFStreamErrorDomainSSL Code=-9806"(null)" UserInfo=/NSLocalizedRecoverySuggestion=Errorcode definition can be found in Apple's SecureTransport.h}

请求信息

CONNECT m.m******(手动打码).pt:443 HTTP/1.1

请求头部

Host: m.m*******.ptConnection: keep-alive

发送请求头部

未发送

服务端开始响应

未响应

请求完成2024/04/26 10:11:40.529

 app无法登录，抓包数据。网页版可以登录，求分析求解

前些天一直在找便宜的云服务器，偶然间发现一免费的云平台，这里推荐给大家。

就是阿贝云，网站是https://www.abeiyun.com

说一下感受

1、阿贝云虽然是一小众的云平台，重在免费，该有的东西都有，还能免备案这是最舒服的。

2、使用了一天，上了项目，网速不慢。

3、唯一要指出来就是磁盘太小。

分享免费云服务器

拉取了rustbuster的v3.0.3版本文件, 二进制文件无法使用, 执行结果如下:

```bash
[root_cn@archlinux target]$ ./rustbuster-v3.0.3-x86_64-unknown-linux-gnu
./rustbuster-v3.0.3-x86_64-unknown-linux-gnu: error while loading shared libraries: libssl.so.1.1: cannot open shared object file: No such file or directory
```

拉取了main源码, 想自行尝试编译, 然后卡在了openssl, 以下为报错信息:

```rust
The following warnings were emitted during compilation:

warning: openssl-sys@0.9.47: build/expando.c:4:24: error: pasting "RUST_VERSION_OPENSSL_" and "(" does not give a valid preprocessing token
warning: openssl-sys@0.9.47:     4 | #define VERSION2(n, v) RUST_VERSION_##n##_##v
warning: openssl-sys@0.9.47:       |                        ^~~~~~~~~~~~~
warning: openssl-sys@0.9.47: build/expando.c:5:23: note: in expansion of macro ‘VERSION2’
warning: openssl-sys@0.9.47:     5 | #define VERSION(n, v) VERSION2(n, v)
warning: openssl-sys@0.9.47:       |                       ^~~~~~~~
warning: openssl-sys@0.9.47: build/expando.c:10:1: note: in expansion of macro ‘VERSION’
warning: openssl-sys@0.9.47:    10 | VERSION(OPENSSL, OPENSSL_VERSION_NUMBER)
warning: openssl-sys@0.9.47:       | ^~~~~~~

error: failed to run custom build command for `openssl-sys v0.9.47`

Caused by:
  process didn't exit successfully: `/mnt/d/work/file/rust/rustbuster/target/debug/build/openssl-sys-c5a482a9e0e49574/build-script-main` (exit status: 101)
  --- stdout
  cargo:rustc-cfg=const_fn
  cargo:rerun-if-env-changed=X86_64_UNKNOWN_LINUX_GNU_OPENSSL_LIB_DIR
  X86_64_UNKNOWN_LINUX_GNU_OPENSSL_LIB_DIR unset
  cargo:rerun-if-env-changed=OPENSSL_LIB_DIR
  OPENSSL_LIB_DIR unset
  cargo:rerun-if-env-changed=X86_64_UNKNOWN_LINUX_GNU_OPENSSL_INCLUDE_DIR
  X86_64_UNKNOWN_LINUX_GNU_OPENSSL_INCLUDE_DIR unset
  cargo:rerun-if-env-changed=OPENSSL_INCLUDE_DIR
  OPENSSL_INCLUDE_DIR unset
  cargo:rerun-if-env-changed=X86_64_UNKNOWN_LINUX_GNU_OPENSSL_DIR
  X86_64_UNKNOWN_LINUX_GNU_OPENSSL_DIR unset
  cargo:rerun-if-env-changed=OPENSSL_DIR
  OPENSSL_DIR unset
  cargo:rustc-link-lib=ssl
  cargo:rustc-link-lib=crypto
  OPT_LEVEL = Some("0")
  TARGET = Some("x86_64-unknown-linux-gnu")
  HOST = Some("x86_64-unknown-linux-gnu")
  CC_x86_64-unknown-linux-gnu = None
  CC_x86_64_unknown_linux_gnu = None
  HOST_CC = None
  CC = None
  CFLAGS_x86_64-unknown-linux-gnu = None
  CFLAGS_x86_64_unknown_linux_gnu = None
  HOST_CFLAGS = None
  CFLAGS = None
  CRATE_CC_NO_DEFAULTS = None
  DEBUG = Some("true")
  CARGO_CFG_TARGET_FEATURE = Some("fxsr,sse,sse2")
  running: "cc" "-O0" "-ffunction-sections" "-fdata-sections" "-fPIC" "-g" "-fno-omit-frame-pointer" "-m64" "-Wall" "-Wextra" "-E" "build/expando.c"
  cargo:warning=build/expando.c:4:24: error: pasting "RUST_VERSION_OPENSSL_" and "(" does not give a valid preprocessing token
  cargo:warning=    4 | #define VERSION2(n, v) RUST_VERSION_##n##_##v
  cargo:warning=      |                        ^~~~~~~~~~~~~
  cargo:warning=build/expando.c:5:23: note: in expansion of macro ‘VERSION2’
  cargo:warning=    5 | #define VERSION(n, v) VERSION2(n, v)
  cargo:warning=      |                       ^~~~~~~~
  cargo:warning=build/expando.c:10:1: note: in expansion of macro ‘VERSION’
  cargo:warning=   10 | VERSION(OPENSSL, OPENSSL_VERSION_NUMBER)
  cargo:warning=      | ^~~~~~~
  exit status: 1

  --- stderr
  thread 'main' panicked at /home/root_cn/.cargo/registry/src/mirrors.sjtug.sjtu.edu.cn-4f7dbcce21e258a2/openssl-sys-0.9.47/build/main.rs:126:13:

  Header expansion error:
  Error { kind: ToolExecError, message: "Command \"cc\" \"-O0\" \"-ffunction-sections\" \"-fdata-sections\" \"-fPIC\" \"-g\" \"-fno-omit-frame-pointer\" \"-m64\" \"-Wall\" \"-Wextra\" \"-E\" \"build/expando.c\" with args \"cc\" did not execute successfully (status code exit status: 1)." }

  Failed to find OpenSSL development headers.

  You can try fixing this setting the `OPENSSL_DIR` environment variable
  pointing to your OpenSSL installation or installing OpenSSL headers package
  specific to your distribution:

      # On Ubuntu
      sudo apt-get install libssl-dev
      # On Arch Linux
      sudo pacman -S openssl
      # On Fedora
      sudo dnf install openssl-devel

  See rust-openssl README for more information:

      https://github.com/sfackler/rust-openssl#linux

  note: run with `RUST_BACKTRACE=1` environment variable to display a backtrace
warning: build failed, waiting for other jobs to finish...
```

经过检查openssl与rust均为最新版本, 

```bash
[root_cn@archlinux target]$ sudo pacman -S rust
[sudo] password for root_cn:
warning: rust-1:1.77.2-1 is up to date -- reinstalling
resolving dependencies...
looking for conflicting packages...

Package (1)  Old Version  New Version  Net Change

extra/rust   1:1.77.2-1   1:1.77.2-1     0.00 MiB

Total Installed Size:  249.41 MiB
Net Upgrade Size:        0.00 MiB

:: Proceed with installation? [Y/n] n
[root_cn@archlinux target]$ sudo pacman -S openssl
warning: openssl-3.2.1-1 is up to date -- reinstalling
resolving dependencies...
looking for conflicting packages...

Package (1)   Old Version  New Version  Net Change

core/openssl  3.2.1-1      3.2.1-1        0.00 MiB

Total Installed Size:  11.45 MiB
Net Upgrade Size:       0.00 MiB

:: Proceed with installation? [Y/n] n
```

在网上找了一下, 查到资料, 在[rust-openssl的issues](https://github.com/sfackler/rust-openssl/issues/1227)中提到类似报错, 得到解释如下:

> If you are cross compiling to MUSL, you either need to point openssl-sys to the location that you have a copy of OpenSSL cross compiled to MUSL, or tell it to build a copy of OpenSSL itself with the vendored feature.
>
>	如果你是交叉编译到MUSL，你需要将openssl-sys指向你有一个交叉编译到MUSL的OpenSSL副本的位置，或者告诉它用vendored特性构建一个OpenSSL本身的副本。

由于不会rust, 依靠关键词"交叉编译"+"cargo"搜索到了[cargo交叉编译rust程序](https://blog.csdn.net/tyc880616/article/details/104371502), 顺着找到文件:

```
[root_cn@archlinux .cargo]$ cat ~/.cargo/config
[source.crates-io]
replace-with = 'sjtu' # 指定使用下面哪个源，修改为source.后面的内容即可

# 中国科学技术大学
[source.ustc]
registry = "https://mirrors.ustc.edu.cn/crates.io-index"

# 上海交通大学
[source.sjtu]
registry = "https://mirrors.sjtug.sjtu.edu.cn/git/crates.io-index/"

# 清华大学
[source.tuna]
registry = "https://mirrors.tuna.tsinghua.edu.cn/git/crates.io-index.git"

# rustcc社区
[source.rustcc]
registry = "https://code.aliyun.com/rustcc/crates.io-index.git"
```

没有找到交叉编译的设置, 由于本人不会rust, 线索断了, 尝试向大家寻求一波帮助, 非常感谢阅读.



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